Decisive - by Chip Heath and Dan Heath
Decisions are part of everyone’s daily life. We make decisions all the time, about everyday activities, such as what to eat, what clothes to wear etc., to life events, ranging from where to work, which city to live in, how to invest one's hard earned money, among other critical decisions. In this book, authors, Chip Heath and Dan Heath, take a systematic look at the process of decision making and identify key steps that can help us make better decisions. First, authors identify the causes that lead to poor decision making, then they develop a process acronymed - W.R.A.P - to help make better decisions. Throughout the chapters, the authors discuss examples in detail to illustrate and identify the steps to help with decision making. Overall, the book is an interesting read as it explores examples via stories to explain the process of decision making and provides a practical system for decision making. At the end of each chapter, the authors have summarized the chapter in one page. I have reproduced the summary of each page below.
Chapter 1
Four Villains of decision making :
We form opinions effortlessly.
What is in our spotlight = the most accessible information + our interpretation of that information. But that will rarely be all that we need to make good decisions.
Trusting our guts or conducting good analysis won’t fix it. But a good process will.
We can defeat the villains by shifting the spot lights.
Villain 1 - Narrow Framing - Instead of this ‘or’ that, consider ‘and’
Villain 2 - Confirmation Bias
Villain 3 - Short-term emotion - get distance
Villain 4 - Overconfidence - having too much faith in our predictions.
WRAP process will help
Widen your options
Reality-Test your assumptions
Attain Distance before deciding
Prepare to be Wrong.
Chapter 2
Avoid a Narrow Frame :
Teenagers get trapped in a narrow frame. They are blind to their choices. Most organization tend to make decisions in a narrow frame.
Often there are more plentiful options.
We get stuck on a narrow frame as we tend to focus on our current options and other things are out of our spotlight.
Thinking about opportunity cost will help escape a narrow frame.
Try - Vanishing Options Test - What if current options disappeared ?
It’s easier to spot a narrow frame from the outside - watch for it as a decision adviser. “Whether or not” decisions means narrow framing.
Chapter 3
Multitrack
Multitracking = Considering more than one option simultaneously. E.g.: naming firm Lexicon.
When multiple options are created, the problem gets defined more clearly.
When only one option is presented, ego gets tied to it. Multi-tracking keeps ego in check.
Having too many options may lead to decision paralysis, but having one or two more options has huge benefits.
When having options, beware of ‘sham options’, i.e. are the options really an option. One way to know if the options are real is, if there is disagreement about it.
Toggle between prevention and promotion mindset.
Prevention focus = avoiding negative outcomes.
Promotion focus = pursuing positive outcomes.
Push for ‘this AND that’ rather than ‘this OR that’.
Chapter 4
Find Someone Who’s Solved your problem.
When more options are needed, look for someone who has solved the problem.
Look outside: competitive analysis, benchmark, best practices.
Look inside: Find your bright spots, what can you learn from your bright spots.
Create a “playlist” - playlist to stimulate new ideas.
Look for ideas: in the distance. Analogies are a pillar of scientific problem solving.
Look to nature for solving problems.
Chapter 5
Consider the opposite.
Confirmation bias = Hunting for information that confirms our initial assumptions which are self-serving.
Spark constructive disagreement.
Ask disconfirming questions to gather more trustworthy information.
Probing questions can backfire in a dynamic power situation.
Extreme disconfirming - consider the opposite of our instincts.
Test our assumption with a deliberate mistake.
Natural tendency is to seek confirmation, need to discipline consider the opposite.
Chapter 6
Zoom Out, Zoom In
Often we trust “the averages” over our instinct, however we don’t seek reviews for our most important decisions.
Inside view = our evaluation of our specific situation. Outside view = how things generally unfold in the same situation. Outside view is more accurate, but most people gravitate toward inside view.
If “Base Rate” can’t be found, ask an expert in that area.
A “Close-up” ,i.e taking a deeper look behind the number can add texture that is missing from Outside view.
To gather the best information, we should zoom out and zoom in. i.e. Get Outside view and a ‘close-up’ view.
Chapter 7
Ooch
Ooching = running small experiments to test out theories. Rather than jumping in head first, dip a toe in.
Ooching is useful as we are terrible at predicting the future.
Entrepreneurs ooch naturally, rather than create business forecasts, they go out and try things.
Ooching is counterproductive for situations that require commitment.
For Hiring - we try to predict success via interviews. We should ooch instead.
Why would we ever predict when we can oouch.
Chapter 8
Overcome Short-term Emotion
Fleeting emotions tempt us to make decisions that are bad in the long term. E.g: Car salesman trick.
To overcome short-term emotion, distance need to be attained.
10/10/10 method provides distance. Impact of decision in the 10 Minute/ 10 Month and 10 year scale.
Decisions are often altered by two-subtle short-term emotions: (1) mere exposure: we like what’s familiar to us; (2) Loss aversion: losses are more painful than gains are pleasant.
Loss aversion + mere exposure = status quo bias.
We can attain distance by looking at our situation from an observer’s perspective.
Answering the question “What would I tell my best friend to do in this situation?”
Chapter 9
Honor your Core Priorities
Quieting short-term emotion won’t always make a decision easy.
Agonizing decisions are often signs of conflict among your core priorities.
By identifying and enshrining your core priorities, you make it easier to resolve present and future dilemmas.
Establishing core priorities is, unfortunately, not same as binding yourself to them.
To carve out space to pursue our core priorities, we must go on the offense against lesser priorities.
Chapter 10
Bookend the future
The future is not a “point” - a single scenario that must be predicted.Consider a range of outcomes from very bad to very good.
To prepare for lower bookend, we need premortem. “It’s a year from. Our decision has failed utterly. Why?”
To be ready for upper bookend, we need a pre-parade. “It’s a year from now. We are heros. Will we be ready for success?”
For the unforeseen use a “Safety factor”.
Anticipating problems helps us cope with them.
By bookending - anticipating and preparing for both adversity and success - we stack the deck in favor of our decisions.
Chapter 11
Set a Tripwire
In life, we naturally slip into autopilot, leaving past decisions unquestioned.
A tripwire can snap us awake and make us realize we have a choice.
Tripwires can be especially useful when change is gradual.
For people stuck on autopilot, consider deadlines or partitions.
We tend to escalate investment in poor decisions; partitions can help rein that in.
Tripwire can create a safe space for risk taking, They (1) cap risk; and (2) quiet your mind until the trigger is hit.
Many powerful trip wires are triggered by patterns rather than dates/metrics/budgets.
Tripwires can provide a powerful realization: We have a choice to make.
Chapter 12
Trusting the process
Decisions made by groups have an additional burden: They must be seen as fair.
“Bargaining” - Until all sides can live with the choice - makes for good decisions that will be seen as fair.
Procedural justice is critical in determining how people feel about a decision.
Process should be perceived as just.
A trustworthy process can help us navigate even the thorniest decisions.
Process can provide confidence, and trusting it can permit us to take bigger risks and make bolder choices. People don’t regret what what they did but what they didn’t do