Book Review and Summary : 'How to Avoid a Climate Disaster'

“51 Billion to Zero” is the phrase that grabbed my attention and prompted me to learn more about ‘Climate Change’ and its impact. ‘How to Avoid a Climate Disaster’, by Bill Gates, contains a wealth of information to start learning more about the subject.

In this book, Bill Gates breaks down a fairly complex topic, both in terms of the numeric size of the problem and the longer time horizon of the impact of climate change, into more concrete and understandable terms. This book is packed with a multitude of data and lists a plethora of areas where new technological innovation can help mitigate the impact of climate change.

In the introduction, Gates describes his journey, starting with efforts to fight poverty, reduce preventable diseases and deaths to becoming a climate change advocate. Gates came to the conclusion that there is a direct correlation between “energy poverty”, financial poverty and preventable diseases that impacts the poorest countries and population of the world. However, if all countries were to adopt fossil fuel to meet their energy needs, the resultant carbon emission will lead to a catastrophe in terms of loss of life and economic damage. The magnitude of this catastrophe may be 10 times worse than that of Covid-19.

The book is organized into the following broad area’s, and I follow the same format in this blog:

The basic science behind climate change, the sources of current emissions and their levels, i.e. the 51 Billion number.
Deeper look at the sources of Carbon emissions -
1. How we plug in - electricity usage/production.
2. How we make things - Concrete, Cement and Steel.
3. How we grow things - fertilizer, meat consumption.
4. How we get around - cars/ planes/ships etc.
5. How we keep cool and stay warm - AC and heating.
Solutions steps - Adaptation, Technology, policy and individual action.

Section 1: Science Behind Climate change and Background

The basic science behind increased global temperature due to carbon emission can be explained in these three steps:

The current warmth on Earth’s atmosphere is due to carbon-based molecules in the atmosphere trapping the radiated heat.
Using fossil fuel releases carbon molecules into the atmosphere.
These additional carbon molecules trap more heat, causing the temperature to rise even more.

Figure 2: Source: Columbia Climate School Website [1]; Simplified diagram showing how Earth transforms sunlight into infrared energy. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane absorb the infrared energy, re-emitting some of it back toward Earth and some of it out into space.

Reference [1] goes into more details on questions such as - Why does carbon dioxide trap heat and not other molecules? Why does CO2 let heat in and not out ? If CO2 makes up only 0.04% how can it trap so much heat?

51 Billion: In the book the number 51 Billion is referenced over and over again. 51 Billion tons is the amount of GreenHouse Gases(GHG) added each year into the atmosphere due to human activity. To avoid catastrophic environmental consequences from these emissions, this number needs to be Zero in the next thirty years. In most scientific papers the units used are - Gigatons (GT) this is the same as a billion tons.

Green Premium: This phrase is widely used in the book and refers to the cost difference between a product or process that doesn’t emit carbon with one that does. The passenger car sector provides a good example of reduction in ‘Green Premium’ of electric cars, making it more affordable.

Paris Agreement [5]: The goal of the agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. This translates to an average per person emissions of around 2 tonnes per person/year by 2030 from the current 6 and half tonnes.

Sources of Carbon Emission:

Figure 3: Source 'How to Avoid Climate disaster' Book.

Figure 3 provides an overview of all the sources of carbon emission due to human activity worldwide. The largest source of emission on the worldwide scale happens to be construction and related activities. However, transportation is the highest source of emissions in the US.

The total emissions for the top 3 highest emitting countries are: China 10.1 (GT) (28%), US 5.4 GT(15 %) and India 2.65GT (7%). Reference [4] lists the per capita emission for each country which factors in the population. The figure in reference [4] provides bar-chart comparison of the emissions per capita for the largest emitting countries.

Five Question to understand Climate change Solution:

When trying to learn more about a subject as complex as climate change, the scale of numbers and the volume of facts can be daunting. In fact, even Bill Gates found it hard to wrap these facts and numbers around his head. To make sense of the large numbers, cost, space and time needed to understand the subject, Gates created a framework of five questions. This framework can help create a mental framework to help understand the problem and evaluate the solution.

Question 1# How much of the 51 Billion Ton ?

Whenever a number is mentioned in regards to Greenhouse gases, convert it to a percentage of 51 billion. 510 million is just 1% of total emissions. Only technologies that can remove at least 1 % of GHG a year are considered for investments.

Question 2# What’s the plan for cement (Construction) ?

When thinking about emissions, electricity and cars are at the forefront of most discussions and get the most attention. However, Cement, Steel and Plastic account for 31 % of all carbon emissions. A comprehensive plan needs to include emissions due to construction and related activities.

Question 3# How much power are we talking about?

Answer to this question begins with reminding the readers the definitions of what a ‘Watt’ is and ballpark number of energy usage.

Watt: joule per second (a bit of energy per second)
KiloWatt: 1000 Watts.
KiloWatt-Hour (kWh): Number of kiloWatts used per-hour, this used for billing.
Average Home Electricity Bill: One kWh at the average cost of 10 cents, for 24 hours costs $2.40 / day, this translates to $72/monthly.

Electricity usage approximation to understand large numbers.

Average American house: 1 kilowatt
Small town: 1 megawatt
Mid-size city: 1 gigawatt
The United States: 1,000 gigawatts
The world: 5,000 gigawatts

An incandescent bulb uses about 40 Watts; a hair dryer uses 1,500; the largest power station in the world, the Three Gorges Dam in China, can produce 22 billion watts. Intermittency of power generation and variability of the power usage needs to be factored in when considering alternate sources of power.

Question 4# How much space is needed ?

Various sources of power generation require differing amounts of space. Given the constraint on the amount of land and water available, this becomes an important factor.

Power density in terms of watts per square meter for various sources of energy is listed below:

Fossil fuels: 500–10,000 watts per square meter
Nuclear: 500–1,000 watts per square meter
Solar: 5–20 watts per square meter
Hydropower (dams): 5–50 watts per square meter
Wind: 1–2 watts per square meter
Wood and other biomass: Less than 1 watt per square meter

Question 5# How much is this going to cost?

This question brings to forefront the concept of ‘Green Premium’. This is defined as the additional cost of zero-carbon solution when compared to the fossil-fuel counterpart. As technology evolves and consumer demand changes, the Green Premium will also change, making it a moving target. Green Premium is a great tool to evaluate solutions and arrive at a decision on whether a particular zero-carbon solution is financially viable at the current time.

Section 2: Sources of Carbon Emission:

How we plug in - electricity usage/production ( 27% of 51 Billion)

Electricity is one of the biggest miracles of the 20th century, starting with less than 20% of households using it at the beginning of the century to being used by 100% of households in the US. Electricity has changed all aspects of life. Its reliability and the low cost has made it an engineering marvel.

Sun and Wind are intermittent sources of electricity, and suffer from the drawbacks of the demand for reliability and the curse of intermittency (daily and seasonal). Several other areas such as Battery for storing, installing transportation cables are explored, all these add significant cost to the Green premium. Several alternatives to making carbon free electricity is also explored in this chapter such as - Nuclear Fission, Nuclear Fusion, Offshore wind, and Geothermal.

Figure 4: Sources of Electricity production [Image from book]

Ideas for Storing Electricity are discussed - Batteries, pumped hydro, thermal storage, cheap hydrogen. Other innovations - such as carbon capture using technology such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) can help achieve net zero emissions. Policy changes to shift usage to balance the demand for generation can help reduce usage. According to Gates, decarbonizing electricity can help play a big role in decarbonizing other parts of the physical economy.

How we make things ( 31% of 51 Billion)

Concrete (cement), Steel and Plastic form the bulk of the ingredients used in almost all aspects of our everyday lives - buildings, homes, roads, cars, electronics and other household products. All of these materials used for building things release carbon in the process of obtaining them. Cement which is one the main ingredient of concrete is obtained from limestone - which is made up of calcium, carbon and oxygen. Limestone plus heat gives cement and releases carbon dioxide. Steel is obtained from iron ore and the process releases CO2 as well. At the end of the chapter the steps can lead us to zero net carbon emission in manufacturing is listed -

Electrify every process possible.
Get electricity from a grid that is decarbonized.
Use carbon capture to absorb the remaining emissions.
Use materials more efficiently.

How we grow things (19% of 51 Billion)

Semi-dwarf wheat, Haber-Bosch process, Enteric fermentation - these are some of the terms I learnt in this chapter.

Norman Borlaugh, one of the unsung heroes of the 20th century is credited with saving a billion lives through the creation of the Semi-dwarf wheat breed. Similar work on corn and rice tripled the yields.

All modern synthetic fertilizer production is credited to two German chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch. The Haber-Bosch process named after these chemists, is the process that converts atmospheric nitrogen (N2) to ammonia (NH3) by a reaction with hydrogen (H2) using a metal catalyst under high temperatures and pressures. This synthetic fertilizer invention is credited with increasing the crop yields multiple folds. However, the process of producing synthetic fertilizer releases greenhouse gases.

The process called Enteric Fermentation involves bacteria inside the cow's stomach breaking down cellulose in the plant, fermenting it. However, this process produces methane. The cow’s grown for their meat use up a lot of agricultural land and their belches and farts contribute to greenhouse gases.

As the population grows the demand for food is going to grow. It will require new ideas and innovation to increase food production, change food habits, fertilize plants, raise livestock , reduce deforestation and waste less food.

How we get around (16% of 51 Billion)

Seeing all the cars, SUVs, trucks and other transportation it might be surprising to not see transportation as the number one cause of emissions. The answer lies in the fact that transportation is the number one cause of emissions in the US, but not world wide. Starting about 200 years ago we started using fossil fuel for transportation, and no one is going to give up the way of current transportation. Any alternative needs to be able to provide the same amount of energy at the same low price as gasoline.

Figure 5: Modes of Transportation [image from book]

A gallon of gasoline packs more energy than a stick of dynamite and is cheaper than a gallon of milk. This combination of energy density and cost is very hard to beat for any other alternative sources of fuel. Pound for pound the best batteries today pack 35 times less energy than gasoline. Based on this, we can conclude that electricity cannot be used to power cargo ships, long haul trucks and airplanes.

The Zero carbon future for transportation is to electrify all vehicles that can be electrified (passenger cars, local trucks and buses) and use cheapest zero carbon alternative fuels such as biofuel and electrofuels for the rest (trains, airplanes, ships and long distance trucks).

How we keep cool and stay warm( 7% of 51 Billion)

John Gorrie, a physician in Florida invented the first machine to produce cold air in 1840. Gorrie thought this would help patients recover from malaria ( the cause of malaria back then was thought to be bad air, hence the name mal-aria) . The next improvement in air-conditioning was made in 1902 by an engineer named Willis Carrier. He designed a machine that lowered the humidity while also decreasing the temperature.

Air-Conditioning uses the most electricity in American homes and businesses, but the most energy is used by furnaces and water heaters. A/C units contain refrigerants known as F-gases as they contain fluorine that leak out over time. F-gases are a far more potent source of greenhouse gases than carbon.

Using a heat-pump (same mechanism as used in a refrigerator), good insulation, smart glass windows and efficient doors can help reduce the carbon footprint. The path to zero-carbon is the same as the path in transportation: 1) Electrify equipment to get rid of natural gas water heaters and furnaces and 2) develop clean fuel for everything else.

Section 3: Solutions steps - Adaptation, Technology, Policies and individual action

Adaptation:

Africa is responsible for about 2 percent of global emissions, but the poorest farmers in Africa are among the firsts already bearing the brunt of climate change. CGIAR ( started as Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (I think a better name would have been ARC, Agricultural Research Consulting) is helping the poor farmers to adapt and have nutritious food to eat. CGIAR has helped develop drought-tolerant maize that has helped farmers in Zimbabwe to increase yield several fold. Scuba rice is another innovation that allows rice plants to withstand flooding for two weeks at a time.

Adaptation would involve these three steps - 1) Reduce risk - climate proof infrastructure, building against flooding, help relocate people from flood and fire prone areas. 2) Preparation for Emergencies - Better weather forecasting, early warning systems and well-trained first responders; and 3) Recovery Services - health care, education and insurance services to help displaced people.

Geo-Engineering:

The idea of geo-engineering is to make temporary changes to earth’s ocean or atmosphere to lower the planet's temperature. When I first read about this, it sounded like an outlandish idea. However, learning more about geo-engineering and the fact that this has happened naturally due to volcanic eruptions, makes this a promising solution. The idea of brightening Marine stratocumulus clouds described in [8], is cost-effective and reversible. The idea of geo-engineering faces political and ethical hurdles. Further, there is opposition as long-term risks to biodiversity and environment are unknown. Geo-engineering is seen by some as addressing the symptom and not a cure, with potential to make things worse.

Government Policies and Role:

In the 1950’s and 1960’s air pollution marked a major cause of public concern in the US and Europe. This resulted in governments implementing policies and laws that resulted in removal of poisonous gases out of air, removal of lead from gasoline, and a drop in emissions of carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide. Similar policies are now required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Many of the foundations of modern technologies, such as the internet, life-saving medicines, GPS, microprocessors are all results of the U.S. government funding research in these areas. Government's role is to invest in R&D, when the private sector can’t see how to make a profit.

Governments at all levels, city, county, state and federal can be buyers of the early stage innovations. Markets, technology and policy are the three levers that are required to wean from fossil fuels.

Technology:

These are few areas where innovation and investment can help us to get to zero emissions.

Electricity: Grid-scale storage, underground transmission, next-gen Nuclear fission nuclear fusion, carbon capture, pumped hydro, thermal storage.
Cement and Steel: Zero carbon cement, steel and hydrogen production.
Food: Drought and flood tolerant crops, Zero-carbon fertilizer, Plant-based meat and diary, Alternatives to palm oil.
Transport: Advanced biofuels, electrofuels.
Heating and Cooling: Coolants that don’t contain F-gases.

Individual Action:

As a citizen, a consumer and an employee or employer, we can ask ourselves what can be done to limit climate change. Markets are ruled by supply and demand, as a consumer, we can have a huge impact on the demand side. What we buy and use can have a huge impact. LED light bulbs, smart thermostat, better insulation, efficient appliances, buying electric vehicles, and shift towards plant-based food will cut down emissions we are responsible for. As a citizen, calls and letters to elected officials can have a real impact. Individuals can have a bigger impact at local and state levels. As an employee or a shareholder companies can be pushed to do its part. Companies can prioritize innovation and use of low-carbon solutions and engage in policy making processes.

Conclusion:

This book provided a great introduction to the topic of ‘climate change’. Climate science tells us the changes that are occurring in the climate, but it doesn’t tell us how to tackle it. In this book, Bill Gates was able to connect areas such as engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental science, economics and government policy to present the causes of emissions and the plan to get to zero emissions.

Inaction in the area of climate change will make the climate less bearable for everyone. The poorest who have done the least to impact the climate will suffer the most. Worldwide the results will be - rising sea levels, extinction of many species, extreme weather, food shortages, mass migration with close to a billion climate refugees.

Ramesh Krishnamurthy, PhD